In the latest Talking Reds, Daniel Rhodes takes an analytical look at Liverpool's prospects of securing a top-four finish.

There are many ways to compare the chances of qualifying for the Champions League: the historical data since Champions League football was offered to non-champions, the average points total for teams finishing in the top four, the fixture difficulty of our closest rivals or even statistical models that consider a number of individual metrics and spit out some odds for each team.

The historical data, looked at in detail by Ray Wilson (@theRayWilson) on The Bib Theorists, discovered qualification for the top four was reliant on a number of factors: the team who finishes fourth needs 68.5 points and scores an average of 65 goals per season, or 1.71 goals per game. In defence, the average number of goals conceded is just over a goal per game (38.83), or 1.02 gpg. That leaves the required goal difference at +26. He also breaks it down into home and away performance:

"In general, the home record is essential. The numbers are crisp and clear. 40 points coming from 12 wins, four draws, three defeats. No decimals required - a solid home record is the mainstay of the fourth placed team. On average you need to score just over a goal a game, and concede only 16 times.

Things are a little fuzzier away, with an average of 28.5pts collected from 7.58 wins, 5.75 draws and 5.67 defeats. 27.25 goals scored, 22.75 conceded."

How do Liverpool compare to these potential targets this season?

Goals: 2.4 per game (+0.7 above the average)
Goals conceded: 28 (-0.25 per game too many)
Points: 1.95 points per game (+ 0.14 per game)
Home record: 2.54 ppg at Anfield (+0.44 points per game)
Away record: 1.36 ppg (- 0.14)
Goal difference: +1.13 per game or +26 (+0.45 per game)

We are scoring plenty of goals, our home form is exceptional and if we carry on with our current points per game record of 1.95 ppg, then we'll finish with 74 points.

We could do with a slight improvement in the number of goals we're conceding and our away form.

Our current goal difference is excellent.  

Fixture comparison:

Simon Gleave (@SimonGleave), of Infostrada Sports, has been tracking each match this season and comparing them with the exact same fixtures from the 2012-13 season. The ISG model also gives a projected points total, based on the remaining fixtures following the same results as last season. Here are Liverpool's fixtures this season:

As you can see, Liverpool have improved by a massive 10 points this season, even picking up a point on last season at the weekend against Aston Villa.  

Only Southampton (+11) has improved more, year-on-year, than Liverpool (and Man City). Another interesting feature is the improvement by eight of the nine sides that are around Liverpool. Ignoring Man United, who have managed to drop 16 points, all the sides have, at least, improved by one point or more. Therefore, this all-round improvement somewhat rubbishes the notion that it is easier to qualify this season. The completion is as fierce, if not the most competitive, it ever has been. This fact alone probably means all the average figures will likely rise: the team finishing fourth will need more points and a better goal difference this season. Looking ahead, then, what can we reasonably expect from Liverpool's remaining fixtures?

First of all, the notion of a "must-win" game. I must have heard this cliché, at least once, every game this season. If you hear it again, you can tell the person that says it they're lying. We do not have any, isolated, must-win games (although, it is probably best to avoid this approach until after the Merseyside derby!). The only must win game we might have, is against Newcastle on the final day of the season, if we're level on points with our rivals for fourth place; then, and only then, can we call the match a must win. The truth is, we must win nine of the remaining 16 games (with seven defeats), to finish on 70 points. However, because of the fierce nature of the competition, it is looking increasingly likely that anywhere between 74 and a record total of 76 (Liverpool 2007-08) will be required to secure qualification. As a consequence, Liverpool must win 11 out of their remaining 16 games. 10 wins, three draws, three defeats = 76 points.

In logical terms, if we lose to the three teams above us; draw with the three teams below us, and beat everybody else, we finish on 76 points. If that isn't enough to qualify, it will be the first time ever that a team has finished with so many points, and failed to qualify.

As for the odds: we are favourites with all the bookies, we have a 56.1 per cent chance, according to the website sportsclubstats.com; and, finally, in reference to the statistical models I refer to in the opening paragraph, Colin Trainor (@ColinTrainor) believes our chances are even better:

Not enough to bet your mortgage on, just yet, but in a season of increased competitiveness at the top, to be in the driving seat, with the outcome in our hands, is obviously the best place to be; in fact, it's a much better position than a lot of fans (and experts) predicted before the start of the season.

Follow the author @analysesport and read more of his work at tomkinstimes.com.